Today / Bolnisi vs Gori

Bolnisi vs Gori Prediction

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Bolnisi

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gori

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.5%0-18.5%0-22.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.0%1-110.7%1-22.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-16.7%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.8%3-12.8%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% — — —

Draw 28.4% — — —

Away win 21.6% — — —

Over 2.5 35.1% — — —

Over 3.5 10.0% — — —

BTTS 45.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.9%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.0%

#2 0–0 17.5%

#3 2–0 13.8%

#4 1–1✓ 10.7%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolnisi1.3

Gori0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.1% · O3.5 PROB 10.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLNISI · PPG 1.60

GORI · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=49.9%

Win probability 1X2

Bolnisi (H) 49.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gori (A) 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolnisi face Gori on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolnisi a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Gori 22%, so Bolnisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Bolnisi and 0.5 for Gori (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolnisi are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.40 for Gori. This match finished 1-1.

Bolnisi vs Gori Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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