Today / Shanghai Port vs Shenzhen

Shanghai Port vs Shenzhen Prediction

Wednesday, May 6, 2026

Shanghai Port
PPG 1.80 · HOME
1 – 1
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Shenzhen
PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.9%0-21.6%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.8%1-17.3%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.7%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-17.9%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-19.2%4+-25.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 58.0%
Draw 20.9%
Away win 21.1%
Over 2.5 61.7%
Over 3.5 48.8%
BTTS 58.8%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1
xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.8%

H 58% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%
#2 2–0 8.7%
#3 1–1 7.3%
#4 3–1 7.9%
#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Port2.5
Shenzhen1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 48.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI PORT · PPG 1.80

SHENZHEN · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
40%
NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Port (H) 58.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 20.9%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Shenzhen (A) 21.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Port face Shenzhen on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Port a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Shenzhen 21%, so Shanghai Port are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Shanghai Port and 1.1 for Shenzhen (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Port are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.00 for Shenzhen. This match finished 1-1.

PredictVantage

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