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Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 10:00

Kolos Kovalivka

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

LNZ Cherkasy

PPG 2.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-025.0%0-123.5%0-211.1%0-33.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-011.1%1-110.5%1-24.9%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-02.5%2-12.3%2-21.1%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-00.4%3-10.3%3-20.2%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.9% 28.6% 3.50 -40.8%

Draw 36.6% 35.1% 2.85 +4.3%

Away win 46.5% 46.5% 2.15 -0.0%

Over 2.5 16.4% 32.3% 3.10 -49.2%

Over 3.5 5.2% — — —

BTTS 21.9% 41.7% 2.40 -47.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob21.9%

A 46% / xG 0.4-0.9 / U2.5 16% / NoBTTS 22%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 25.0%

#2 0–1 23.5%

#3 1–0✓ 11.1%

#4 0–2 11.1%

#5 1–1 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kolos Kovalivka0.4

LNZ Cherkasy0.9

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 16.4% · O3.5 PROB 5.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KOLOS KOVALIVKA · PPG 1.36

LNZ CHERKASY · PPG 2.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

47%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.55) vs Home AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Kolos Kovalivka (H) 16.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -40.8%

Draw 36.6%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +4.3%

LNZ Cherkasy (A) 46.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kolos Kovalivka face LNZ Cherkasy in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 17% chance, the draw 37% and LNZ Cherkasy 47%, so LNZ Cherkasy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.9 for LNZ Cherkasy (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 16% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 22% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 2.55 for LNZ Cherkasy. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Kolos Kovalivka vs LNZ Cherkasy Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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