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Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 10:00

Pacos Ferreira

PPG 1.36 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

Chaves

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.3%0-114.7%0-26.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.8%1-113.4%1-26.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.7%2-16.1%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.0%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.8% 32.3% 3.10 +4.8%

Draw 32.7% 32.3% 3.10 +1.4%

Away win 33.5% 44.2% 2.26 -24.3%

Over 2.5 27.3% 46.5% 2.15 -41.3%

Over 3.5 11.1% 25.3% 3.95 -56.1%

BTTS 35.6% 54.6% 1.83 -34.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob35.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-0.9 / U2.5 27% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.3%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 0–1 14.7%

#4 1–1 13.4%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pacos Ferreira0.9

Chaves0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 27.3% · O3.5 PROB 11.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PACOS FERREIRA · PPG 1.36

CHAVES · PPG 1.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Pacos Ferreira (H) 33.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +4.8%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.4%

Chaves (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pacos Ferreira face Chaves in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pacos Ferreira a 34% chance, the draw 33% and Chaves 34%, so Pacos Ferreira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Pacos Ferreira and 0.9 for Chaves (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 27% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pacos Ferreira are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.36 for Chaves. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 4-3.

Pacos Ferreira vs Chaves Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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