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Lanus vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

Lanus

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDL

UPCOMING

Defensa Y Justicia

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 44% chance

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 41.7% — a clear edge.

+21.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.6%0-19.1%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.5%1-112.7%1-26.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-18.9%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.1%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 57.1% 1.75 -21.9%

Draw 26.2% 32.3% 3.10 -11.3%

Away win 29.2% 20.8% 4.80 +24.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 41.7% 2.40 +21.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 50.3% 46.5% 2.15 +8.2%

Home O1.5 39.8% 47.6% 2.10 -16.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 20.0% 5.00 +18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.3%

H 45% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lanus1.4

Defensa Y Justicia0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LANUS · PPG 1.42

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

44%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 2.34 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lanus (H) 44.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.9%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.3%

Defensa Y Justicia (A) 29.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lanus face Defensa Y Justicia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lanus a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Defensa Y Justicia 29%, so Lanus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lanus and 0.9 for Defensa Y Justicia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lanus are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.36 for Defensa Y Justicia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.1%.

Lanus vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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