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Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:15

Velez Sarsfield

PPG 1.83 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDDD

UPCOMING

Estudiantes L.P.

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.4%0-114.0%0-24.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.9%1-112.4%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.4%2-15.5%2-21.8%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.5%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 43.5% 2.30 -10.5%

Draw 31.9% 35.7% 2.80 -10.7%

Away win 29.2% 30.3% 3.30 -2.2%

Over 2.5 34.6% 37.0% 2.70 -6.6%

Over 3.5 18.2% 18.2% 5.50 +0.1%

BTTS 42.4% 46.5% 2.15 -8.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Away O1.5 18.8% 26.7% 3.75 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 137 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob42.4%

D 32% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.4%

#2 1–0 18.9%

#3 0–1 14.0%

#4 1–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velez Sarsfield0.9

Estudiantes L.P.0.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VELEZ SARSFIELD · PPG 1.83

ESTUDIANTES L.P. · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

42%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 1.54 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Velez Sarsfield (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -10.5%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.7%

Estudiantes L.P. (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velez Sarsfield face Estudiantes L.P. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velez Sarsfield a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Estudiantes L.P. 29%, so Velez Sarsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Velez Sarsfield and 0.7 for Estudiantes L.P. (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velez Sarsfield are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 1.36 for Estudiantes L.P.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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