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Gimnasia L.P. vs Tigre Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:30

Gimnasia L.P.

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

UPCOMING

Tigre

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+10.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-111.3%0-25.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.3%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.9%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.0%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 37.0% 2.70 -0.1%

Draw 27.6% 35.2% 2.84 -13.0%

Away win 35.5% 34.7% 2.88 +2.2%

Over 2.5 47.4% 35.1% 2.85 +35.1%

Over 3.5 26.3% 17.4% 5.75 +30.7%

BTTS 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Home O1.5 32.9% 30.8% 3.25 +6.9%

Away O1.5 31.7% 29.0% 3.45 +9.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.2%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–1 11.3%

#3 1–0 13.1%

#4 0–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia L.P.1.2

Tigre1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA L.P. · PPG 1.73

TIGRE · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.20 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia L.P. (H) 37.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -0.1%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -13.0%

Tigre (A) 35.5%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia L.P. face Tigre in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia L.P. a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Tigre 36%, so Gimnasia L.P. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gimnasia L.P. and 1.0 for Tigre (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia L.P. are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.00 for Tigre. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +35.1%.

Gimnasia L.P. vs Tigre Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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