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Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 8 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:30

Gimnasia M.

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

UPCOMING

Boca Juniors

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.2%0-110.6%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.3%1-113.1%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.0%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 32.3% 3.10 +34.8%

Draw 26.5% 34.0% 2.94 -13.3%

Away win 30.0% 40.3% 2.48 -25.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 40.8% 2.45 +24.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 21.1% 4.75 +21.8%

BTTS 52.9% 48.8% 2.05 +8.4%

Home O1.5 33.9% 29.4% 3.40 +15.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 44% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–0 9.2%

#5 2–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimnasia M.1.2

Boca Juniors1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMNASIA M. · PPG 2.00

BOCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.58

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.08, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimnasia M. (H) 43.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +34.8%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 2.94 · IMPLIED 34.0% EV -13.3%

Boca Juniors (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV -25.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimnasia M. face Boca Juniors in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimnasia M. a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Boca Juniors 30%, so Gimnasia M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gimnasia M. and 1.2 for Boca Juniors (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimnasia M. are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.58 for Boca Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.0%.

Gimnasia M. vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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