Today / G. Mendoza vs Defensa y J.

G. Mendoza vs Defensa y J. Prediction

Monday, May 4, 2026

G. Mendoza

PPG 1.43 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Defensa y J.

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-112.2%0-27.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.1%1-113.3%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.0%2-17.2%2-24.3%2-31.7%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.2%3-12.6%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% — — —

Draw 32.4% — — —

Away win 36.4% — — —

Over 2.5 39.9% — — —

Over 3.5 19.7% — — —

BTTS 48.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.2%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

G. Mendoza1.1

Defensa y J.1.2

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.9% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

G. MENDOZA · PPG 1.43

DEFENSA Y J. · PPG 1.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.43), Away GOOD (1.57)

Win probability 1X2

G. Mendoza (H) 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Defensa y J. (A) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

G. Mendoza face Defensa y J. on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives G. Mendoza a 31% chance, the draw 32% and Defensa y J. 36%, so Defensa y J. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for G. Mendoza and 1.2 for Defensa y J. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, G. Mendoza are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.57 for Defensa y J.. This match finished 2-1.

G. Mendoza vs Defensa y J. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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