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Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

Arsenal

PPG 2.28 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Chelsea

PPG 1.68 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.3%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.1%1-110.2%1-25.7%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.8%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.7%3-16.4%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.8%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 58.8% 1.70 -10.8%

Draw 23.5% 27.8% 3.60 -9.2%

Away win 24.0% 20.8% 4.80 +9.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 59.9% 1.67 -0.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

BTTS 57.6% 59.9% 1.67 -3.8%

Home O1.5 55.8% 59.9% 1.67 -6.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 30.8% 3.25 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.6%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal1.9

Chelsea1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL · PPG 2.28

CHELSEA · PPG 1.68

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -10.8%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -9.2%

Chelsea (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal face Chelsea in England - Premier League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Chelsea 24%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Arsenal and 1.1 for Chelsea (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 1.68 for Chelsea. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.9%.

Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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