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Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:30

Newcastle

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

DW ···

UPCOMING

Bournemouth

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LD ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 55.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.4%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.3%1-111.1%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.7%3-15.6%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

Draw 24.1% 28.6% 3.50 -9.4%

Away win 26.5% 31.3% 3.20 -9.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Over 3.5 32.2% 42.0% 2.38 -23.4%

BTTS 55.1% 66.7% 1.50 -17.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 55.6% 1.80 -10.2%

Away O1.5 34.1% 44.4% 2.25 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.1%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newcastle1.7

Bournemouth1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWCASTLE · PPG 1.51

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Newcastle (H) 49.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +3.7%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.4%

Bournemouth (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newcastle face Bournemouth in England - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newcastle a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Bournemouth 27%, so Newcastle are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Newcastle and 1.2 for Bournemouth (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newcastle are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.18 for Bournemouth. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +0.0%.

Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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