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Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Nottingham Forest

PPG 1.01 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

UPCOMING

Tottenham

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-17.3%0-23.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.0%1-111.8%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.5%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.8%3-15.1%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.0%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 41.7% 2.40 +21.7%

Draw 25.0% 29.9% 3.35 -9.8%

Away win 24.3% 35.2% 2.84 -18.6%

Over 2.5 50.9% 52.6% 1.90 -3.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 30.8% 3.25 +2.7%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 48.1% 44.4% 2.25 +8.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 40.0% 2.50 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nottingham Forest1.6

Tottenham1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NOTTINGHAM FOREST · PPG 1.01

TOTTENHAM · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nottingham Forest (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +21.7%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.8%

Tottenham (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nottingham Forest face Tottenham in England - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nottingham Forest a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Tottenham 24%, so Nottingham Forest are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Nottingham Forest and 1.1 for Tottenham (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.01 points per game versus 1.18 for Tottenham. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +17.3%.

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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