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Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:30

Hull City

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WW ···

UPCOMING

Aston Villa

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 25.0% — a clear edge.

+117.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.0%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.1%1-110.9%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.1%3-15.9%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.1%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 25.0% 4.00 +117.6%

Draw 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Away win 21.6% 54.1% 1.85 -36.0%

Over 2.5 52.8% 54.1% 1.85 -2.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 50.5% 57.1% 1.75 -11.6%

Home O1.5 50.0% 32.3% 3.10 +55.0%

Away O1.5 28.3% 54.1% 1.85 -28.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.5%

H 54% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.1%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hull City1.8

Aston Villa1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HULL CITY · PPG 1.75

ASTON VILLA · PPG 1.21

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Hull City (H) 54.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +117.6%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Aston Villa (A) 21.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -36.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hull City face Aston Villa in England - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hull City a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Aston Villa 22%, so Hull City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hull City and 1.0 for Aston Villa (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hull City are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.21 for Aston Villa. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +128.5%.

Hull City vs Aston Villa Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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