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Brentford vs Sunderland Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Brentford

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

UPCOMING

Sunderland

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.8%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.5%1-25.8%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.4%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 60.6% 1.65 -14.2%

Draw 24.8% 26.3% 3.80 -3.5%

Away win 23.2% 20.0% 5.00 +9.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 55.6% 1.80 -8.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 57.8% 1.73 -13.7%

Away O1.5 31.1% 26.7% 3.75 +16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brentford1.7

Sunderland1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BRENTFORD · PPG 1.85

SUNDERLAND · PPG 1.04

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brentford (H) 52.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -14.2%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.5%

Sunderland (A) 23.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brentford face Sunderland in England - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brentford a 52% chance, the draw 25% and Sunderland 23%, so Brentford are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Brentford and 1.0 for Sunderland (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brentford are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.04 for Sunderland. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.8%.

Brentford vs Sunderland Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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