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Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Fulham

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

UPCOMING

Crystal Palace

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.6%0-23.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.2%1-111.3%1-26.3%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.7%2-19.7%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.5%3-23.1%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.8% 43.5% 2.30 +16.8%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 25.1% 32.3% 3.10 -13.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.4% 1.91 +2.8%

Over 3.5 31.7% 31.3% 3.20 +1.4%

BTTS 54.6% 58.8% 1.70 -7.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 47.6% 2.10 +4.8%

Away O1.5 33.2% 38.2% 2.62 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fulham1.7

Crystal Palace1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FULHAM · PPG 1.43

CRYSTAL PALACE · PPG 1.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Fulham (H) 50.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +16.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Crystal Palace (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -13.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fulham face Crystal Palace in England - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fulham a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Crystal Palace 25%, so Fulham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Fulham and 1.1 for Crystal Palace (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fulham are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.12 for Crystal Palace. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +15.4%.

Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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