Today / Yacoub El Manso vs Berkane

Yacoub El Manso vs Berkane Prediction

Monday, May 4, 2026

Yacoub El Manso

PPG 0.63 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Berkane

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-112.1%0-29.5%0-34.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.7%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-03.8%2-16.0%2-24.7%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.3% — — —

Draw 29.0% — — —

Away win 48.6% — — —

Over 2.5 47.0% — — —

Over 3.5 25.4% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob51.6%

A 49% / xG 1.0-1.6 / O2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.1%

#2 0–1 12.1%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Yacoub El Manso1.0

Berkane1.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

YACOUB EL MANSO · PPG 0.63

BERKANE · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Yacoub El Manso (H) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Berkane (A) 48.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Yacoub El Manso face Berkane on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Yacoub El Manso a 22% chance, the draw 29% and Berkane 49%, so Berkane are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Yacoub El Manso and 1.6 for Berkane (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Yacoub El Manso are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 1.50 for Berkane. This match finished 1-1.

Yacoub El Manso vs Berkane Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions