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Tiszakecske FC vs Szentlőrinc SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 17:00

Tiszakecske FC

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWW

UPCOMING

Szentlőrinc SE

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+16.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.1%0-22.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-111.0%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.1%3-15.9%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 54.6% 1.83 -2.5%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Away win 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -9.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 51.3% 1.95 +16.2%

Over 3.5 36.4% 32.5% 3.08 +12.1%

BTTS 55.9% 57.1% 1.75 -2.2%

Home O1.5 49.9% 52.1% 1.92 -4.2%

Away O1.5 26.1% 31.4% 3.18 -10.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 32.2%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tiszakecske FC1.8

Szentlőrinc SE1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TISZAKECSKE FC · PPG 1.80

SZENTLŐRINC SE · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tiszakecske FC (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -2.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Szentlőrinc SE (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tiszakecske FC face Szentlőrinc SE in Hungary - NB II on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tiszakecske FC a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Szentlőrinc SE 23%, so Tiszakecske FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tiszakecske FC and 1.0 for Szentlőrinc SE (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tiszakecske FC are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.94 for Szentlőrinc SE. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.2%.

Tiszakecske FC vs Szentlőrinc SE Prediction— Hungary - NB II

Match Preview & Prediction

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