Today / Cukaricki vs Red Star
Cukaricki vs Red Star Prediction
Monday, May 4, 2026
// Model verdict
Over 2.5
Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
Correct score prediction
A 58% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%
Form & verdict
CUKARICKI · PPG 1.69
RED STAR · PPG 2.25
Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home GOOD (1.69)
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
Cukaricki face Red Star on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cukaricki a 19% chance, the draw 23% and Red Star 58%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cukaricki and 2.1 for Red Star (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cukaricki are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 2.25 for Red Star. This match finished 1-2.