Today / Cukaricki vs Red Star

Cukaricki vs Red Star Prediction

Monday, May 4, 2026

Cukaricki
PPG 1.69 · HOME
1 – 2
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Red Star
PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-17.7%0-28.3%0-35.9%0-4+5.2%1 1-04.2%1-19.1%1-29.8%1-37.0%1-4+6.2%2 2-02.5%2-15.4%2-25.7%2-34.1%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.0%3-12.1%3-22.3%3-31.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 18.8%
Draw 23.1%
Away win 58.1%
Over 2.5 64.5%
Over 3.5 42.5%
BTTS 62.5%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-2
xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob62.5%

A 58% / xG 1.2-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%
#2 1–2 9.8%
#3 0–2 8.3%
#4 1–3 7.0%
#5 0–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cukaricki1.2
Red Star2.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CUKARICKI · PPG 1.69

RED STAR · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Cukaricki (H) 18.8%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Red Star (A) 58.1%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cukaricki face Red Star on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cukaricki a 19% chance, the draw 23% and Red Star 58%, so Red Star are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Cukaricki and 2.1 for Red Star (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cukaricki are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 2.25 for Red Star. This match finished 1-2.

PredictVantage

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