Today / Jordan - League / Al Buqaa vs Al Salt

Al Buqaa vs Al Salt Prediction— Jordan - League

Regular Season - 25 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 14:00

Al Buqaa

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Salt

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a clear edge.

+16.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-16.3%0-26.2%0-34.1%0-4+3.1%1 1-04.7%1-19.3%1-29.1%1-36.0%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.5%2-16.8%2-26.7%2-34.4%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.7%3-13.4%3-23.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.7%4+-21.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 38.2% 2.62 -15.4%

Draw 28.3% 32.3% 3.10 -12.3%

Away win 39.4% 39.2% 2.55 +0.5%

Over 2.5 60.5% 51.8% 1.93 +16.8%

Over 3.5 45.3% 30.3% 3.30 +49.5%

BTTS 58.5% 59.9% 1.67 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 34.6%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Buqaa1.5

Al Salt2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL BUQAA · PPG 1.33

AL SALT · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.42)

Win probability 1X2

Al Buqaa (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -15.4%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.3%

Al Salt (A) 39.4%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Buqaa face Al Salt in Jordan - League on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Buqaa a 32% chance, the draw 28% and Al Salt 39%, so Al Salt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Al Buqaa and 2.0 for Al Salt (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Buqaa are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.42 for Al Salt. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.5%. This match finished 1-3.

Al Buqaa vs Al Salt Prediction— Jordan - League

Match Preview & Prediction

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