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St George City vs Marconi S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 09:15

St George City

PPG 1.60 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Marconi S.

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+20.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-115.7%0-214.6%0-39.0%0-4+6.3%1 1-05.2%1-19.7%1-28.9%1-35.5%1-4+3.9%2 2-01.6%2-13.0%2-22.7%2-31.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-00.3%3-10.6%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.6% 26.7% 3.75 -56.5%

Draw 21.3% 28.2% 3.55 -24.4%

Away win 67.1% 55.6% 1.80 +20.8%

Over 2.5 44.7% 52.6% 1.90 -15.1%

Over 3.5 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -23.6%

BTTS 38.7% 56.5% 1.77 -31.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob38.7%

A 67% / xG 0.6-1.9 / O2.5 45% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.7%

#2 0–2 14.6%

#3 1–1 9.7%

#4 0–3 9.0%

#5 1–2✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George City0.6

Marconi S.1.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 1.60

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.00

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

St George City (H) 11.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -56.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -24.4%

Marconi S. (A) 67.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George City face Marconi S. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George City a 12% chance, the draw 21% and Marconi S. 67%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for St George City and 1.9 for Marconi S. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George City are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.00 for Marconi S.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.8%. This match finished 1-2.

St George City vs Marconi S. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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