Today / PSM vs Bhayangkara S.

PSM vs Bhayangkara S. Prediction

Monday, May 4, 2026

PSM

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bhayangkara S.

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.5%0-26.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.1%1-112.6%1-27.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.3%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.9%3-13.7%3-22.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.5% — — —

Draw 30.3% — — —

Away win 33.2% — — —

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 25.9% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

D 30% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1✓ 8.3%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PSM1.3

Bhayangkara S.1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PSM · PPG 1.00

BHAYANGKARA S. · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

PSM (H) 36.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bhayangkara S. (A) 33.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

PSM face Bhayangkara S. on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PSM a 37% chance, the draw 30% and Bhayangkara S. 33%, so PSM are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for PSM and 1.3 for Bhayangkara S. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PSM are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.13 for Bhayangkara S.. This match finished 2-1.

PSM vs Bhayangkara S. Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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