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Leones Norte vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 22:00

Leones Norte

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Emelec

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.9%0-112.8%0-25.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.5%1-113.2%1-25.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.5%2-16.8%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.4%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 41.0% 2.44 -6.8%

Draw 36.1% 32.8% 3.05 +10.1%

Away win 25.7% 33.6% 2.98 -23.4%

Over 2.5 28.0% 40.8% 2.45 -31.4%

Over 3.5 11.5% 21.1% 4.75 -45.4%

BTTS 37.6% 50.0% 2.00 -24.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob37.6%

H 38% / xG 1.0-0.8 / U2.5 28% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 16.5%

#4 0–1 12.8%

#5 2–0✓ 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leones Norte1.0

Emelec0.8

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 28.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEONES NORTE · PPG 1.40

EMELEC · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

38%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Leones Norte (H) 38.2%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -6.8%

Draw 36.1%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +10.1%

Emelec (A) 25.7%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -23.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leones Norte face Emelec in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leones Norte a 38% chance, the draw 36% and Emelec 26%, so Leones Norte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Leones Norte and 0.8 for Emelec (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 28% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leones Norte are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for Emelec. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Leones Norte vs Emelec Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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