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Delfin vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Matchday 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 20:30

Delfin

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Mushuc Runa

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.1%0-114.7%0-26.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-016.2%1-113.2%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.2%2-15.9%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.2%3-11.8%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.3% 42.6% 2.35 -21.7%

Draw 37.8% 32.8% 3.05 +15.3%

Away win 28.9% 31.7% 3.15 -9.0%

Over 2.5 24.6% 40.8% 2.45 -39.7%

Over 3.5 9.5% 21.1% 4.75 -54.9%

BTTS 35.0% 50.0% 2.00 -30.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 128 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 4.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob35.0%

D 38% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 25% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.1%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0✓ 16.2%

#4 0–1 14.7%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Delfin0.9

Mushuc Runa0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.6% · O3.5 PROB 9.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DELFIN · PPG 1.67

MUSHUC RUNA · PPG 0.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

38%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=33.3%

Win probability 1X2

Delfin (H) 33.3%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -21.7%

Draw 37.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV +15.3%

Mushuc Runa (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Delfin face Mushuc Runa in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Delfin a 33% chance, the draw 38% and Mushuc Runa 29%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.9 for Delfin and 0.8 for Mushuc Runa (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 25% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Delfin are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.40 for Mushuc Runa. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Delfin vs Mushuc Runa Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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