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Ecuador - Liga Pro
Regular Season - 12
Estadio Jocay· Manta
Sunday, May 3, 2026
20:30
Delfin
PPG 1.67
1-0
HIT CS3
Mushuc Runa
PPG 0.40
Draw· +15.3%
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
33.3%
Odds: 2.35
EV: -21.7%
Draw
37.8%
Odds: 3.05
EV: +15.3%
Away
28.9%
Odds: 3.15
EV: -9.0%
Result: Home ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
24.6%
Odds: 2.45
-39.7%
Over 3.5
9.5%
Odds: 4.75
-54.9%
BTTS
35.0%
Odds: 2.00
-30.0%
O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔
BTTS NO → NO ✔
Correct Score Picks
1st
0-0
✘
2nd
1-1
✘
3rd
1-0
✔
4th
0-1
✘
5th
2-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Delfin
0.90
Mushuc Runa
0.82
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
Verdict & Form
✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=33.3%