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Macara vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Regular Season - 12 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 18:00

Macara

PPG 1.83 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Orense

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.8%0-24.3%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.8%1-112.6%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.0%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.4%3-14.3%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 50.0% 2.00 -8.8%

Draw 30.5% 30.3% 3.30 +0.7%

Away win 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -10.0%

Over 2.5 43.4% 44.4% 2.25 -2.4%

Over 3.5 22.4% 23.1% 4.33 -3.0%

BTTS 49.5% 51.3% 1.95 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.5%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 8.9%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macara1.4

Orense1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MACARA · PPG 1.83

ORENSE · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=45.6%

Win probability 1X2

Macara (H) 45.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -8.8%

Draw 30.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +0.7%

Orense (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macara face Orense in Ecuador - Liga Pro on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macara a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Orense 24%, so Macara are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Macara and 1.0 for Orense (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macara are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.80 for Orense. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Macara vs Orense Prediction— Ecuador - Liga Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ecuador - Liga Pro Predictions