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Radnicki 1923 vs Backa Topola Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:30

Radnicki 1923

PPG 1.47 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Backa Topola

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.8%0-25.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.2%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.0%2-18.1%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.3%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 43.5% 2.30 -10.5%

Draw 32.5% 31.7% 3.15 +2.4%

Away win 28.6% 33.6% 2.98 -14.8%

Over 2.5 39.0% 51.8% 1.93 -24.7%

Over 3.5 19.0% 30.3% 3.30 -37.3%

BTTS 47.2% 59.9% 1.67 -21.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 41%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -0.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

H 39% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Radnicki 19231.2

Backa Topola1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RADNICKI 1923 · PPG 1.47

BACKA TOPOLA · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Radnicki 1923 (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -10.5%

Draw 32.5%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +2.4%

Backa Topola (A) 28.6%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Radnicki 1923 face Backa Topola in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Radnicki 1923 a 39% chance, the draw 33% and Backa Topola 29%, so Radnicki 1923 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Radnicki 1923 and 1.0 for Backa Topola (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Radnicki 1923 are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.19 for Backa Topola. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Radnicki 1923 vs Backa Topola Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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