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Napredak vs Radnicki Nis Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Relegation Group · Matchday 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:30

Napredak

PPG 0.63 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Radnicki Nis

PPG 0.59 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 51% chance

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+21.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-19.6%0-27.6%0-34.0%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.5%1-111.7%1-29.2%1-34.9%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.6%2-17.2%2-25.7%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.9%3-12.9%3-22.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 9.8% 10.25 +186.0%

Draw 28.4% 22.0% 4.55 +29.2%

Away win 43.8% 77.5% 1.29 -43.5%

Over 2.5 53.0% 57.1% 1.75 -7.2%

Over 3.5 30.7% 34.7% 2.88 -11.6%

BTTS 57.7% 47.6% 2.10 +21.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob57.7%

A 44% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–0 6.1%

#4 0–1✓ 9.6%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Napredak1.2

Radnicki Nis1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NAPREDAK · PPG 0.63

RADNICKI NIS · PPG 0.59

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

51%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.63), Away POOR (0.59)

Win probability 1X2

Napredak (H) 27.9%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +186.0%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +29.2%

Radnicki Nis (A) 43.8%

ODDS 1.29 · IMPLIED 77.5% EV -43.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Napredak face Radnicki Nis in Serbia - Super Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Napredak a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Radnicki Nis 44%, so Radnicki Nis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Napredak and 1.6 for Radnicki Nis (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Napredak are averaging 0.63 points per game versus 0.59 for Radnicki Nis. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +186.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Napredak vs Radnicki Nis Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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