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Ghazl El M. vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 8 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 17:00

Ghazl El M.

PPG 1.21 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Ismaily

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.1%0-112.4%0-23.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.9%1-111.8%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.9%2-15.6%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.1%3-11.8%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.5%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.6% 45.5% 2.20 -8.5%

Draw 39.1% 38.2% 2.62 +2.4%

Away win 19.3% 25.6% 3.90 -24.7%

Over 2.5 19.3% 28.6% 3.50 -32.5%

Over 3.5 6.7% 13.3% 7.50 -49.8%

BTTS 28.1% 38.5% 2.60 -26.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob28.1%

H 42% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 19% / NoBTTS 28%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 22.1%

#2 1–0 20.9%

#3 1–1 11.8%

#4 0–1 12.4%

#5 2–0 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ghazl El M.0.9

Ismaily0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 19.3% · O3.5 PROB 6.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GHAZL EL M. · PPG 1.21

ISMAILY · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.21) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Ghazl El M. (H) 41.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -8.5%

Draw 39.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +2.4%

Ismaily (A) 19.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ghazl El M. face Ismaily in Egypt - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ghazl El M. a 42% chance, the draw 39% and Ismaily 19%, so Ghazl El M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Ghazl El M. and 0.6 for Ismaily (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 19% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 28% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ghazl El M. are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 0.60 for Ismaily. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Ghazl El M. vs Ismaily Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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