Today / Garelli Utd vs Tuloy FC

Garelli Utd vs Tuloy FC Prediction

Group Stage ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 08:00

Garelli Utd

PPG 0.38 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tuloy FC

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.3%0-20.7%0-31.0%0-4+3.4%1 1-00.2%1-11.0%1-22.1%1-32.9%1-4+9.9%2 2-00.3%2-11.4%2-23.0%2-34.2%2-4+14.3%3 3-00.3%3-11.4%3-22.9%3-34.1%3-4+13.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-12.0%4+-24.2%4+-36.0%4+-4+20.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% — — —

Draw 14.7% — — —

Away win 61.8% — — —

Over 2.5 97.3% — — —

Over 3.5 92.5% — — —

BTTS 93.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)4.2 BTTS prob93.1%

A 62% / xG 2.9-4.2 / O2.5 97% / BTTS 93%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–4 4.5%

#2 3–4 4.3%

#3 2–3 4.2%

#4 3–3 4.1%

#5 2–5 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Garelli Utd2.9

Tuloy FC4.2

COMBINED 7.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 97.3% · O3.5 PROB 92.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GARELLI UTD · PPG 0.38

TULOY FC · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.38), Away POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

Garelli Utd (H) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 14.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tuloy FC (A) 61.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Garelli Utd face Tuloy FC on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Garelli Utd a 24% chance, the draw 15% and Tuloy FC 62%, so Tuloy FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Garelli Utd and 4.2 for Tuloy FC (7.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-4. There is a 97% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 93% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Garelli Utd are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.44 for Tuloy FC. This match finished 3-1.

Garelli Utd vs Tuloy FC Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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