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AGF Aarhus vs SonderjyskE Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Championship Group - 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 16:00

AGF Aarhus

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

SonderjyskE

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.8%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.2%1-110.7%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.8%3-16.1%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-14.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 69.4% 1.44 -21.5%

Draw 25.8% 22.2% 4.50 +16.1%

Away win 19.6% 16.7% 6.00 +17.6%

Over 2.5 55.5% 67.6% 1.48 -17.9%

Over 3.5 33.1% 45.5% 2.20 -27.2%

BTTS 56.5% 63.7% 1.57 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -9.7%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob56.5%

H 55% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1✓ 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.2%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AGF Aarhus1.9

SonderjyskE1.1

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AGF AARHUS · PPG 2.00

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.5%

Win probability 1X2

AGF Aarhus (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -21.5%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +16.1%

SonderjyskE (A) 19.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

AGF Aarhus face SonderjyskE in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AGF Aarhus a 55% chance, the draw 26% and SonderjyskE 20%, so AGF Aarhus are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for AGF Aarhus and 1.1 for SonderjyskE (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AGF Aarhus are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for SonderjyskE. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.6%. This match finished 2-1.

AGF Aarhus vs SonderjyskE Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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