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Denmark - Superliga logo Denmark flag Denmark - Superliga Championship Group - 30 New Vejlby Stadium· Aarhus Sunday, May 3, 2026 16:00
AGF Aarhus logo AGF Aarhus PPG 2.00
2-1 HIT CS2
SonderjyskE logo SonderjyskE PPG 1.00
Away· +17.6% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.5%
Odds: 1.44 EV: -21.5%
Draw 25.8%
Odds: 4.50 EV: +16.1%
Away 19.6%
Odds: 6.00 EV: +17.6%
Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.5% Odds: 1.48 -17.9%
Over 3.5 33.1% Odds: 2.20 -27.2%
BTTS 56.5% Odds: 1.57 -11.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 2-1
3rd 2-0
4th 1-0
5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

AGF Aarhus
1.85
SonderjyskE
1.05

Model Suggestion

BTTS -11.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -11.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+17.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%
O2.5/Under 64%
BTTS/No 58%
Score Hit 36%
ROI -2.1%
Bet Hit 60% (15 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value
80%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=54.5%

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