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Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 26 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

Dynamo Kyiv

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Shakhtar

PPG 2.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-18.1%0-26.6%0-33.5%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.9%1-111.1%1-29.0%1-34.9%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.7%2-17.7%2-26.2%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.2%3-13.5%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 39.2% 2.55 -21.2%

Draw 27.4% 29.9% 3.35 -8.2%

Away win 41.7% 40.8% 2.45 +2.2%

Over 2.5 57.7% 55.6% 1.80 +3.9%

Over 3.5 35.3% 33.9% 2.95 +4.1%

BTTS 61.7% 62.5% 1.60 -1.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.7%

A 42% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2✓ 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 0–0 5.0%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dynamo Kyiv1.4

Shakhtar1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.7% · O3.5 PROB 35.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DYNAMO KYIV · PPG 1.92

SHAKHTAR · PPG 2.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

62%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.92), Away EXCELLENT (2.17)

Win probability 1X2

Dynamo Kyiv (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -21.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.2%

Shakhtar (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dynamo Kyiv face Shakhtar in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Shakhtar 42%, so Shakhtar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.6 for Shakhtar (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 2.17 for Shakhtar. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +4.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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