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Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 24 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 15:00

Urartu

PPG 1.82 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.7%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.3%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.7%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 29.9% 3.35 +30.3%

Draw 29.6% 31.3% 3.20 -5.3%

Away win 31.4% 48.8% 2.05 -35.6%

Over 2.5 49.6% 51.3% 1.95 -3.3%

Over 3.5 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -5.8%

BTTS 55.8% 57.8% 1.73 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.8%

D 30% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Urartu1.4

Ararat-Armenia1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.7%

Form & verdict PPG

URARTU · PPG 1.82

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.82), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Urartu (H) 38.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +30.3%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -5.3%

Ararat-Armenia (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -35.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Urartu face Ararat-Armenia in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Urartu a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Ararat-Armenia 31%, so Urartu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Urartu and 1.2 for Ararat-Armenia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Urartu are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 2.00 for Ararat-Armenia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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