Urartu vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Armenia - Premier League Regular Season - 24 Urartu Stadium· Yerevan Sunday, May 3, 2026 15:00

Urartu PPG 1.82

0-2 MISS

Ararat-Armenia PPG 2.00

Home· +30.3% ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Urartu face Ararat-Armenia in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Urartu a 39% chance, the draw 30% and Ararat-Armenia 31%, so Urartu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Urartu and 1.2 for Ararat-Armenia (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Urartu are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 2.00 for Ararat-Armenia. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.3%. This match finished 0-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.9%

Odds: 3.35 EV: +30.3%

Draw 29.6%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -5.3%

Away 31.4%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -35.6%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.6% Odds: 1.95 -3.3%

Over 3.5 27.7% Odds: 3.40 -5.8%

BTTS 55.8% Odds: 1.73 -3.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Urartu

1.41

Ararat-Armenia

1.25

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -3.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+30.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5/Under 47%

BTTS/No 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -42.6%

Bet Hit 43% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.82), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)