Uniao de Leiria vs Farense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Portugal - Segunda Liga Regular Season - 32 Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa· Leiria Sunday, May 3, 2026 14:30

Uniao de Leiria PPG 1.73

0-3 MISS

Farense PPG 1.33

Draw· -1.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Uniao de Leiria face Farense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uniao de Leiria a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Farense 25%, so Uniao de Leiria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Uniao de Leiria and 1.0 for Farense (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uniao de Leiria are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.33 for Farense. This match finished 0-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 44.9%

Odds: 2.00 EV: -10.2%

Draw 30.4%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -1.2%

Away 24.7%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -11.1%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.1% Odds: 2.00 -11.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% Odds: 3.40 -21.8%

BTTS 50.2% Odds: 1.73 -13.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Uniao de Leiria

1.43

Farense

1.01

Model SuggestionBTTS -13.2% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -13.2% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

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Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)