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Uniao de Leiria vs Farense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:30

Uniao de Leiria

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Farense

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-18.8%0-24.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.5%1-112.6%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.0%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.3%3-14.3%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 50.0% 2.00 -10.2%

Draw 30.4% 30.8% 3.25 -1.2%

Away win 24.7% 27.8% 3.60 -11.1%

Over 2.5 44.1% 50.0% 2.00 -11.8%

Over 3.5 23.0% 29.4% 3.40 -21.8%

BTTS 50.2% 57.8% 1.73 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.2%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uniao de Leiria1.4

Farense1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.1% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIAO DE LEIRIA · PPG 1.73

FARENSE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Uniao de Leiria (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -10.2%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -1.2%

Farense (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uniao de Leiria face Farense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uniao de Leiria a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Farense 25%, so Uniao de Leiria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Uniao de Leiria and 1.0 for Farense (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uniao de Leiria are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.33 for Farense. This match finished 0-3.

Uniao de Leiria vs Farense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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