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Merida vs Lugo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Merida

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Lugo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-19.8%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.9%1-113.0%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.6%2-24.3%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-13.8%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 50.0% 2.00 -16.2%

Draw 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

Away win 26.5% 28.6% 3.50 -7.2%

Over 2.5 41.2% 46.5% 2.15 -11.4%

Over 3.5 20.7% 25.6% 3.90 -19.3%

BTTS 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.5%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.7%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merida1.3

Lugo1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.2% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MERIDA · PPG 2.00

LUGO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=41.9%

Win probability 1X2

Merida (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -16.2%

Draw 31.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +1.1%

Lugo (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Merida face Lugo in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merida a 42% chance, the draw 32% and Lugo 27%, so Merida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Merida and 1.0 for Lugo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merida are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Lugo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.1%. This match finished 0-2.

Merida vs Lugo Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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