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Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Group 1 - 35
Lezama Facilities· Lezama
Sunday, May 3, 2026
14:00
Athletic B. B
PPG 1.53
2-2
MISS
Ourense CF
PPG 0.59
Draw· +14.2%
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Home
38.3%
Odds: 1.85
EV: -29.1%
Draw
34.1%
Odds: 3.35
EV: +14.2%
Away
27.6%
Odds: 3.80
EV: +4.9%
Result: Draw ✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5
33.8%
Odds: 2.35
-20.6%
Over 3.5
15.3%
Odds: 4.50
-31.1%
BTTS
42.9%
Odds: 2.05
-12.1%
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘
BTTS NO → YES ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st
1-1
✘
2nd
0-0
✘
3rd
1-0
✘
4th
0-1
✘
5th
2-0
✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Athletic B. B
1.13
Ourense CF
0.93
Model Suggestion
No Bet
NO VALUE BET
Model lean:
No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...
55%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME
Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=38.3%