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Athletic B. B vs Ourense CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 35 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Athletic B. B

PPG 1.53 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Ourense CF

PPG 0.59 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-111.8%0-25.5%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.5%1-113.4%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.2%2-17.6%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.1%3-12.9%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% 54.1% 1.85 -29.1%

Draw 34.1% 29.9% 3.35 +14.2%

Away win 27.6% 26.3% 3.80 +4.9%

Over 2.5 33.8% 42.6% 2.35 -20.6%

Over 3.5 15.3% 22.2% 4.50 -31.1%

BTTS 42.9% 48.8% 2.05 -12.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 1.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob42.9%

H 38% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.8%

#3 1–0 14.5%

#4 0–1 11.8%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Athletic B. B1.1

Ourense CF0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.8% · O3.5 PROB 15.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ATHLETIC B. B · PPG 1.53

OURENSE CF · PPG 0.59

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.53) vs P(Home)=38.3%

Win probability 1X2

Athletic B. B (H) 38.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -29.1%

Draw 34.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +14.2%

Ourense CF (A) 27.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Athletic B. B face Ourense CF in Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Athletic B. B a 38% chance, the draw 34% and Ourense CF 28%, so Athletic B. B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Athletic B. B and 0.9 for Ourense CF (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Athletic B. B are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 0.59 for Ourense CF. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Athletic B. B vs Ourense CF Prediction— Spain - Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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