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Damaiense W vs Maritimo W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Damaiense W

PPG 0.38 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Maritimo W

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home weakness: POOR (0.38) vs Away POOR (0.88)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.2%0-25.7%0-33.5%0-4+2.4%1 1-05.2%1-19.6%1-28.8%1-35.4%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.1%2-17.5%2-26.9%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.1%3-13.9%3-23.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 43.3% — — —

Over 2.5 65.9% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 67.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob67.8%

A 43% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 1–2✓ 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Damaiense W1.6

Maritimo W1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DAMAIENSE W · PPG 0.38

MARITIMO W · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.38) vs Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Damaiense W (H) 31.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Maritimo W (A) 43.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Damaiense W face Maritimo W in Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Damaiense W a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Maritimo W 43%, so Maritimo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Damaiense W and 1.8 for Maritimo W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Damaiense W are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Maritimo W. This match finished 1-2.

Damaiense W vs Maritimo W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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