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SL Benfica W vs Sporting W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, May 1, 2026, 18:00

SL Benfica W

PPG 2.50 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sporting W

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.8%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.0%1-19.7%1-25.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.8%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.4%3-16.6%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.3%4+-23.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -14.9%

Away win 21.0% 20.0% 5.00 +5.0%

Over 2.5 62.5% — — —

Over 3.5 40.2% — — —

BTTS 62.2% 57.1% 1.75 +8.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.2%

H 55% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 8.0%

#5 3–1✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SL Benfica W2.0

Sporting W1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SL BENFICA W · PPG 2.50

SPORTING W · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.50) > Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

SL Benfica W (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -14.3%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.9%

Sporting W (A) 21.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

SL Benfica W face Sporting W in Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women on Friday, May 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SL Benfica W a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Sporting W 21%, so SL Benfica W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for SL Benfica W and 1.2 for Sporting W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SL Benfica W are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.13 for Sporting W. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +8.8%. This match finished 3-1.

SL Benfica W vs Sporting W Prediction— Portugal - 1a Divisão - Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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