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Ujpest vs Ferencvaros Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Regular Season - 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Ujpest

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ferencvaros

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-18.9%0-27.6%0-34.4%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.4%1-111.0%1-29.5%1-35.5%1-4+3.5%2 2-04.0%2-16.9%2-25.9%2-33.4%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.8%3-22.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.0% 18.2% 5.50 +43.0%

Draw 27.0% 25.0% 4.00 +8.0%

Away win 47.0% 65.8% 1.52 -28.6%

Over 2.5 56.9% 64.5% 1.55 -11.8%

Over 3.5 34.5% 42.6% 2.35 -18.9%

BTTS 60.1% 63.7% 1.57 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 2.2%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob60.1%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.6%

#4 0–1 8.9%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ujpest1.2

Ferencvaros1.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UJPEST · PPG 1.38

FERENCVAROS · PPG 2.25

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Ujpest (H) 26.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +43.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.0%

Ferencvaros (A) 47.0%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -28.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ujpest face Ferencvaros in Hungary - NB I on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ujpest a 26% chance, the draw 27% and Ferencvaros 47%, so Ferencvaros are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Ujpest and 1.7 for Ferencvaros (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ujpest are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.25 for Ferencvaros. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +43.0%. This match finished 0-5.

Ujpest vs Ferencvaros Prediction— Hungary - NB I

Match Preview & Prediction

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