Today / Egypt - Premier League / Haras El Hodood vs El Geish

Haras El Hodood vs El Geish Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 8 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Haras El Hodood

PPG 1.07 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

El Geish

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.7%0-113.5%0-26.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.7%1-113.5%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-07.4%2-16.8%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-02.5%3-12.3%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.7%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 26.7% 3.75 +29.4%

Draw 35.7% 34.7% 2.88 +2.8%

Away win 29.8% 47.6% 2.10 -37.4%

Over 2.5 30.1% 35.7% 2.80 -15.7%

Over 3.5 12.8% 16.7% 6.00 -23.2%

BTTS 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob39.9%

D 36% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 30% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 14.7%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 1–0 14.7%

#4 0–1 13.5%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haras El Hodood1.0

El Geish0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.1% · O3.5 PROB 12.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HARAS EL HODOOD · PPG 1.07

EL GEISH · PPG 0.86

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.07), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Haras El Hodood (H) 34.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +29.4%

Draw 35.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +2.8%

El Geish (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haras El Hodood face El Geish in Egypt - Premier League on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haras El Hodood a 35% chance, the draw 36% and El Geish 30%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 1.0 for Haras El Hodood and 0.9 for El Geish (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 30% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haras El Hodood are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 0.86 for El Geish. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +29.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Haras El Hodood vs El Geish Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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