Today / Denmark - Superliga / Fredericia vs FC Kobenhavn

Fredericia vs FC Kobenhavn Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Relegation Group · Matchday 30 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 14:00

Fredericia

PPG 0.86 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

FC Kobenhavn

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.5%0-26.8%0-34.8%0-4+4.1%1 1-04.2%1-18.9%1-29.4%1-36.6%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.9%2-16.1%2-26.5%2-34.5%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.3%3-12.8%3-23.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.3%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% 18.5% 5.40 +26.9%

Draw 23.7% 22.7% 4.40 +4.3%

Away win 52.9% 65.4% 1.53 -19.1%

Over 2.5 67.5% 69.0% 1.45 -2.1%

Over 3.5 45.8% 47.6% 2.10 -3.8%

BTTS 66.9% 66.7% 1.50 +0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.9%

A 53% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.6%

#5 2–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fredericia1.4

FC Kobenhavn2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FREDERICIA · PPG 0.86

FC KOBENHAVN · PPG 1.57

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

69%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.57) vs Home POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Fredericia (H) 23.5%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +26.9%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +4.3%

FC Kobenhavn (A) 52.9%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fredericia face FC Kobenhavn in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fredericia a 24% chance, the draw 24% and FC Kobenhavn 53%, so FC Kobenhavn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Fredericia and 2.1 for FC Kobenhavn (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fredericia are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.57 for FC Kobenhavn. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +26.9%. This match finished 3-3.

Fredericia vs FC Kobenhavn Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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