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NWS Spirit vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 07:30

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.80 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Sydney Utd

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+18.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-118.1%0-214.0%0-37.2%0-4+3.9%1 1-07.0%1-110.8%1-28.4%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-02.1%2-13.2%2-22.5%2-31.3%2-4+0.7%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.1% 30.8% 3.25 -54.2%

Draw 25.3% 28.2% 3.55 -10.2%

Away win 60.6% 51.3% 1.95 +18.2%

Over 2.5 36.2% 55.6% 1.80 -34.8%

Over 3.5 17.0% 33.3% 3.00 -49.0%

BTTS 35.3% 59.9% 1.67 -41.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob35.3%

A 61% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.1%

#2 0–2 14.0%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NWS Spirit0.6

Sydney Utd1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.80

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.80)

Win probability 1X2

NWS Spirit (H) 14.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -54.2%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.2%

Sydney Utd (A) 60.6%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

NWS Spirit face Sydney Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NWS Spirit a 14% chance, the draw 25% and Sydney Utd 61%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for NWS Spirit and 1.5 for Sydney Utd (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NWS Spirit are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 3.00 for Sydney Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.2%. This match finished 2-3.

NWS Spirit vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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