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Pacos Ferreira vs Feirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 32 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Pacos Ferreira

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Feirense

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.1%0-26.3%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.7%1-113.2%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-17.9%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 45.5% 2.20 -21.9%

Draw 32.2% 32.3% 3.10 -0.2%

Away win 32.3% 31.3% 3.20 +3.4%

Over 2.5 40.9% 44.4% 2.25 -8.0%

Over 3.5 20.4% 23.8% 4.20 -14.3%

BTTS 49.0% 52.6% 1.90 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.0%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pacos Ferreira1.2

Feirense1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.4%

Form & verdict PPG

PACOS FERREIRA · PPG 1.47

FEIRENSE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.47), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Pacos Ferreira (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -21.9%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.2%

Feirense (A) 32.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pacos Ferreira face Feirense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pacos Ferreira a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Feirense 32%, so Pacos Ferreira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pacos Ferreira and 1.1 for Feirense (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pacos Ferreira are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.20 for Feirense. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Pacos Ferreira vs Feirense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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