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Caboolture vs St George W. Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 07:00

Caboolture

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

St George W.

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 81.8% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+21.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-12.3%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.8%1-16.0%1-21.7%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.3%2-17.9%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.6%3-17.0%3-21.9%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.7%4+-18.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.8% 67.6% 1.48 +21.1%

Draw 12.6% 21.7% 4.60 -42.0%

Away win 5.6% 20.8% 4.80 -73.1%

Over 2.5 62.1% 75.2% 1.33 -17.4%

Over 3.5 39.8% 54.1% 1.85 -26.4%

BTTS 39.6% 70.4% 1.42 -43.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob39.6%

H 82% / xG 2.6-0.6 / O2.5 62% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.3%

#2 3–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 4–0 8.3%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caboolture2.6

St George W.0.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CABOOLTURE · PPG 1.33

ST GEORGE W. · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Caboolture (H) 81.8%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV +21.1%

Draw 12.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -42.0%

St George W. (A) 5.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -73.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caboolture face St George W. in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caboolture a 82% chance, the draw 13% and St George W. 6%, so Caboolture are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Caboolture and 0.6 for St George W. (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caboolture are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.75 for St George W.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Caboolture vs St George W. Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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