Today / North Geelong vs Brunswick Juven

North Geelong vs Brunswick Juven Prediction

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 07:00

North Geelong

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brunswick Juven

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-16.8%0-27.8%0-35.9%0-4+5.8%1 1-03.7%1-18.4%1-29.6%1-37.3%1-4+7.1%2 2-02.3%2-15.1%2-25.9%2-34.5%2-4+4.4%3 3-00.9%3-12.1%3-22.4%3-31.8%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.5% — — —

Draw 19.4% — — —

Away win 61.1% — — —

Over 2.5 68.1% — — —

Over 3.5 46.6% — — —

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.5%

A 61% / xG 1.2-2.3 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Geelong1.2

Brunswick Juven2.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 46.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH GEELONG · PPG 2.25

BRUNSWICK JUVEN · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.25), Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

North Geelong (H) 19.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Brunswick Juven (A) 61.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

North Geelong face Brunswick Juven on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Geelong a 20% chance, the draw 19% and Brunswick Juven 61%, so Brunswick Juven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for North Geelong and 2.3 for Brunswick Juven (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Geelong are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.25 for Brunswick Juven. This match finished 3-4.

North Geelong vs Brunswick Juven Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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