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Real Acerrana vs Manfredonia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Real Acerrana

PPG 0.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Manfredonia

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-113.3%0-28.8%0-33.9%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.7%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.7%2-16.3%2-24.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.5%3-12.0%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% — — —

Draw 31.6% — — —

Away win 42.9% — — —

Over 2.5 40.5% — — —

Over 3.5 20.1% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.7%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 0–1 13.3%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–2✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Acerrana1.0

Manfredonia1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL ACERRANA · PPG 0.75

MANFREDONIA · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.75), Away POOR (0.63)

Win probability 1X2

Real Acerrana (H) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Manfredonia (A) 42.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Acerrana face Manfredonia in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Acerrana a 25% chance, the draw 32% and Manfredonia 43%, so Manfredonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Real Acerrana and 1.3 for Manfredonia (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Acerrana are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.63 for Manfredonia. This match finished 1-2.

Real Acerrana vs Manfredonia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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