Francavilla vs Afragolese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Italy - Serie D - Girone H Group H - 34 Stadio Nunzio Fittipaldi· Francavilla in Sinni Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

Francavilla PPG 1.06

2-0 MISS

Afragolese PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Francavilla face Afragolese in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Francavilla a 36% chance, the draw 31% and Afragolese 33%, so Francavilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Francavilla and 1.2 for Afragolese (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Francavilla are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.13 for Afragolese. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 36.4%

Odds: — EV: —

Draw 31.1%

Odds: — EV: —

Away 32.6%

Odds: — EV: —

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 44.7% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 23.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 52.1% Odds: — —

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Francavilla

1.27

Afragolese

1.19

Model SuggestionBTTS  MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.13)