Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone H / Francavilla vs Afragolese

Francavilla vs Afragolese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Francavilla

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Afragolese

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-110.2%0-26.1%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.8%1-112.9%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.9%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.9%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% — — —

Draw 31.1% — — —

Away win 32.6% — — —

Over 2.5 44.7% — — —

Over 3.5 23.5% — — —

BTTS 52.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.1%

D 31% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 45% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.5%

#3 1–0 10.8%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Francavilla1.3

Afragolese1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.7% · O3.5 PROB 23.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FRANCAVILLA · PPG 1.06

AFRAGOLESE · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Francavilla (H) 36.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Afragolese (A) 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Francavilla face Afragolese in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Francavilla a 36% chance, the draw 31% and Afragolese 33%, so Francavilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Francavilla and 1.2 for Afragolese (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Francavilla are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.13 for Afragolese. This match finished 2-0.

Francavilla vs Afragolese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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