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Heraclea vs Ferrandina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Heraclea

PPG 0.88 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Ferrandina

PPG 0.19 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-111.4%0-24.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.4%1-113.1%1-25.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.4%2-17.5%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-12.9%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% — — —

Draw 34.6% — — —

Away win 23.6% — — —

Over 2.5 30.9% — — —

Over 3.5 13.3% — — —

BTTS 39.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob39.5%

H 42% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 1–0 16.4%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heraclea1.1

Ferrandina0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.9% · O3.5 PROB 13.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HERACLEA · PPG 0.88

FERRANDINA · PPG 0.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.88) > Away POOR (0.19)

Win probability 1X2

Heraclea (H) 41.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ferrandina (A) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Heraclea face Ferrandina in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heraclea a 42% chance, the draw 35% and Ferrandina 24%, so Heraclea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Heraclea and 0.8 for Ferrandina (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heraclea are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 0.19 for Ferrandina. This match finished 2-1.

Heraclea vs Ferrandina Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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