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Barletta vs Real Acerrana Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 33 ·Sunday, April 26, 2026, 13:00

Barletta

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Real Acerrana

PPG 0.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.06), Away POOR (0.19) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-10.3%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.8%1-11.1%1-20.1%1-30.0%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.2%2-12.4%2-20.3%2-30.0%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.4%3-13.4%3-20.4%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-048.3%4+-111.5%4+-21.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.5% — — —

Draw 16.4% — — —

Away win 2.1% — — —

Over 2.5 68.1% — — —

Over 3.5 65.5% — — —

BTTS 30.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 83%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)0.2 BTTS prob30.3%

H 82% / xG 4.2-0.2 / O2.5 68% / NoBTTS 30%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 15.3%

#2 3–0✓ 14.4%

#3 5–0 13.0%

#4 2–0 10.2%

#5 1–0 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barletta4.2

Real Acerrana0.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.1% · O3.5 PROB 65.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BARLETTA · PPG 2.06

REAL ACERRANA · PPG 0.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.06), Away POOR (0.19) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Barletta (H) 81.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Real Acerrana (A) 2.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Barletta face Real Acerrana in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, April 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barletta a 82% chance, the draw 16% and Real Acerrana 2%, so Barletta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Barletta and 0.2 for Real Acerrana (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 30% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barletta are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 0.19 for Real Acerrana. This match finished 3-0.

Barletta vs Real Acerrana Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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