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Nardo vs Barletta Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Nardo

PPG 2.13 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Barletta

PPG 2.13 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-114.2%0-27.6%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.5%1-113.5%1-27.3%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.9%2-16.4%2-23.4%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.9%3-12.0%3-21.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% — — —

Draw 34.6% — — —

Away win 36.1% — — —

Over 2.5 33.0% — — —

Over 3.5 14.8% — — —

BTTS 42.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob42.4%

D 35% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.2%

#3 0–1 14.2%

#4 1–0✓ 12.5%

#5 0–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nardo0.9

Barletta1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 14.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NARDO · PPG 2.13

BARLETTA · PPG 2.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.13), Away EXCELLENT (2.13)

Win probability 1X2

Nardo (H) 29.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Barletta (A) 36.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nardo face Barletta in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nardo a 29% chance, the draw 35% and Barletta 36%, so Barletta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Nardo and 1.1 for Barletta (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nardo are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 2.13 for Barletta. This match finished 1-0.

Nardo vs Barletta Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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