Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone H / V. Francavilla vs Sarnese

V. Francavilla vs Sarnese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

V. Francavilla

PPG 1.25 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sarnese

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.0%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.5%1-112.0%1-27.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.0%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.5%3-14.5%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% 45.5% 2.20 -10.0%

Draw 28.9% 32.3% 3.10 -10.4%

Away win 30.2% 32.3% 3.10 -6.4%

Over 2.5 52.0% 50.0% 2.00 +4.0%

Over 3.5 29.9% 27.8% 3.60 +7.6%

BTTS 57.4% 57.1% 1.75 +0.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.4%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.3%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

V. Francavilla1.5

Sarnese1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.0% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

V. FRANCAVILLA · PPG 1.25

SARNESE · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

V. Francavilla (H) 40.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -10.0%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.4%

Sarnese (A) 30.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

V. Francavilla face Sarnese in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives V. Francavilla a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Sarnese 30%, so V. Francavilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for V. Francavilla and 1.3 for Sarnese (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, V. Francavilla are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Sarnese. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 2-2.

V. Francavilla vs Sarnese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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