V. Francavilla vs Sarnese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Italy - Serie D - Girone H Group H - 34 Stadio Giovanni Paolo II· Francavilla Fontana Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00

V. Francavilla PPG 1.25

2-2 MISS

Sarnese PPG 0.88

Over3.5· +7.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

V. Francavilla face Sarnese in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives V. Francavilla a 41% chance, the draw 29% and Sarnese 30%, so V. Francavilla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for V. Francavilla and 1.3 for Sarnese (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, V. Francavilla are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.88 for Sarnese. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 40.9%

Odds: 2.20 EV: -10.0%

Draw 28.9%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -10.4%

Away 30.2%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -6.4%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.0% Odds: 2.00 +4.0%

Over 3.5 29.9% Odds: 3.60 +7.6%

BTTS 57.4% Odds: 1.75 +0.4%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

V. Francavilla

1.50

Sarnese

1.26

Model SuggestionBTTS +0.4% ROI TRACKS: BTTS
Tracked ROI market: BTTS. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+7.6%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

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Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.25) > Away POOR (0.88)