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Citta di Fasano vs Paganese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Italy - Serie D - Girone H logo Italy flag Italy - Serie D - Girone H Group H - 34 Stadio Comunale Vito Curlo· Fasano Sunday, May 3, 2026 13:00
Citta di Fasano logo Citta di Fasano PPG 2.19
6-0 MISS
Paganese logo Paganese PPG 1.69
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Citta di Fasano face Paganese in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Citta di Fasano a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Paganese 28%, so Citta di Fasano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Citta di Fasano and 1.0 for Paganese (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Citta di Fasano are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.69 for Paganese. This match finished 6-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.3%
Odds: — EV: —
Draw 33.4%
Odds: — EV: —
Away 28.3%
Odds: — EV: —
Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 36.2% Odds: —
Over 3.5 17.0% Odds: —
BTTS 44.9% Odds: —
O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1
2nd 0-0
3rd 1-0
4th 0-1
5th 2-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Citta di Fasano
1.17
Paganese
0.97

Model Suggestion

No Bet MODEL ONLY
ROI tracking: odds not available yet, so this is a model suggestion only.

League Track Record

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%
O2.5/Under 56%
BTTS/No 59%
Score Hit 41%
ROI 31.4%
Bet Hit 60% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value
52%
MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away GOOD (1.69)

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