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Citta di Fasano vs Paganese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Group H - 34 ·Sunday, May 3, 2026, 13:00

Citta di Fasano

PPG 2.19 · HOME

6 – 0

FULL TIME

Paganese

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-111.4%0-25.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.7%1-113.4%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.0%2-17.8%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.1%3-13.0%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% — — —

Draw 33.4% — — —

Away win 28.3% — — —

Over 2.5 36.2% — — —

Over 3.5 17.0% — — —

BTTS 44.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 31.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.9%

H 38% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 13.7%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Citta di Fasano1.2

Paganese1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.2% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CITTA DI FASANO · PPG 2.19

PAGANESE · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.19) > Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Citta di Fasano (H) 38.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Paganese (A) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Citta di Fasano face Paganese in Italy - Serie D - Girone H on Sunday, May 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Citta di Fasano a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Paganese 28%, so Citta di Fasano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Citta di Fasano and 1.0 for Paganese (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Citta di Fasano are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 1.69 for Paganese. This match finished 6-0.

Citta di Fasano vs Paganese Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone H

Match Preview & Prediction

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